As the music industry continues to evolve and adapt, parallel to rapid developments in technology and consumer behaviour, trend forecasts have reported several shifts and changes that will influence sales, marketing and overall business strategies over the coming year. When we zoom out, it’s clear to see the key threads that stand out from the rest, with the rise of emerging markets, a focus on superfans, economic slowdown and the power of narrative marketing, among the notable trends. It’s a fascinating time, with consumer analytics and market predictions continuing to open up new levels of understanding across the music industry.
The end of hypergrowth streaming fantasy
Recalibration is the operative word here. For years, streaming growth felt inevitable. The proverbial tide lifting all boats, or perhaps yachts are a better analogy here. While reports from Goldman Sachs and MIDiA Research forecast long-term revenue expansion - Goldman projects global music revenues could reach $200 billion by 2035 - when we look closer, a different story is revealed.
Subscription growth is actually slowing in mature markets and price increases, not user explosions, are doing more of the heavy lifting. The latest modelling from Goldman Sachs suggests global paid music streaming subscribers will grow to 827 million in 2025, representing 10% year-on-year growth from 752 million in 2024, roughly 75 million net new subscribers. On paper, this looks great. But that 10% marks a deceleration from 2024’s 10.6%growth, and sits well below the 12.8% recorded in 2023.
Cold as it may sound, we’ve moved from expansion to extraction. Streaming is no longer the miracle serum; it’s the infrastructure, keeping music economics stable.
This is critical data for artists and labels. It indicates that strategy should be less about chasing passive scale and more about increasing lifetime value for fans and listeners.
The rise of the superfan economy
While streaming growth begins to slow down, elsewhere, depth and richness of experience are leading the way. Goldman Sachs’ modelling and MIDiA’s merchandise projections point in the same direction, highlighting the contrast in consumer habits: Casual listeners stream while superfans subsidise the career.
Merchandise alone is forecast to grow substantially in the coming years, and not because everyone suddenly wants more T-shirts or mugs. Fandom has become a more inherent identity complex. The truly committed fans are lining up to invest in limited drops, deluxe editions, VIP tiers, direct-to-fan communities and paid experiences.
The gap between passive audiences and invested ones is widening. Artists, and their teams, who understand this are building immersive ecosystems where dedicated fans can connect deeper with the artist. The result is whole worlds of experience that superfans can indulge in, building communities and creating products and experiences that are limited and/or highly collectable.
In practice, that shows up as more intentional community-building, with smaller groups and higher spend per head. That deeper level of engagement creates stronger bonds and more galvanises the dedication of the most committed fans.
Marketing matures beyond virality
Virality has influenced marketing campaigns for too long. Powerful in the short-term perhaps, but its impact quickly burns out. Coverage from Music Ally highlights something more measured - campaigns that utilise taking time, not only to produce, but to digest.
The volatility that can often arise on social media platforms - particularly around short-form video - has exposed how fragile hype-led strategies can be. Which, let’s face it, were only ever going to combust at some point. TikTok remains powerful, but unstable. Reels and Shorts compete for attention, but none of them guarantees longevity. In fact, largely quite the opposite. Viral moments are soon forgotten.
What’s arisen is a need for narrative discipline and a more thoughtful approach to artist campaigns. In the early streaming years, visibility was often enough. But now, with digital saturation at unprecedented levels, coherence and depth matter more than making a whole load of noise in a short space of time.
In a market recentering itself around depth and retention, storytelling with intention has become foundational. Virality can still boost a project, for sure, but it’s simply not a sustainable marketing model.
The economic gap grows
Live music and physical formats give us insight into a widening structural divide in the industry. At the top end, stadium tours, festival headliners and premium ticket tiers continue to dominate revenue streams, buoyed by loyal fanbases willing to pay high prices for VIP experiences and exclusive merchandise. According to the IFPI Global Music Report 2025, live music revenues rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, with the top 5% of tours accounting for more than 60% of total ticket sales globally, highlighting just how concentrated income has become.
But at the grassroots level, there’s still a lot of economic pressure and worry. Rising touring costs, venue fragility and shrinking local support make profitability increasingly difficult for emerging and mid-tier acts. For many DJs and artists operating in the mid-to-low tier, the public perception is deceptive. Sure, they’re travelling internationally almost every weekend to play gigs, but the fees can be low, and the entire lifestyle is unsustainable for many. Surveys conducted by UK Music in 2024 suggested that over 70% of independent touring musicians reported negative net income from live performances.
The result is a growing demographic of artists, bands and DJs caught in the struggle. While this “struggling class” of artists has always existed, the numbers are growing, fueled by high overheads, platform-driven income inequalities, cost of living and a market that rewards scale over creativity.
The bottom line for this industry trend is polarisation, with a small elite benefiting from the bulk of economic rewards while the majority navigate a precarious landscape.
Gatekeepers are still relevant
In a world dominated by algorithms, curated lists and tastemaker platforms still exert a key influence. Despite the presence of automated discovery tools and AI-driven recommendations, many listeners continue to rely on trusted human voices.
Looking at the vast number of social media pages dedicated to sharing music - offering critique, discourse, insider insights, or simply sharing tunes from their collection - it’s clear that personalities can still impact listening habits. Accounts like Mimi The Music Blogger, Fish56octagon or DaMetalMessiah command huge engagement. Mimi leans on critical industry insight, expanding her coverage to a Substack newsletter, while the latter two are more focused on nostalgia and historical context. It’s the kind of human-led storytelling and sharing that algorithms could (hopefully) never replicate.
This influence extends across traditional media and streaming platforms. End-of-year retrospectives, artist-to-watch features and the ubiquitous New Music Friday playlists remain touchpoints for audiences seeking guidance amid the endless flood of new releases. This goes for industry heads and everyday members of the public.
Radio shows and curated streams - from Sarah Story’s weekly show to Pete Tong’s iconic BBC Radio 1 sets - demonstrate the enduring power of experienced tastemakers to influence culture and launch careers. Algorithms might spark discovery, but the momentum behind an artist or release often requires the co-sign of trusted voices. That institutional validation can help transform casual listens into sustained engagement and cultural relevance.
So, while technology dictates what appears in your feed, it’s the curated voice that frames it, contextualises it and ultimately gives it meaning.
Ready to turn your listeners into loyal fans? Talk to Duncan, our Music & Culture expert.
